NEC should be Data Driven - Electrician Talk - Professional Electrical Contractors Forum
CLICK HERE AND JOIN OUR COMMUNITY TODAY, IT'S FREE!
Go Back   Electrician Talk - Professional Electrical Contractors Forum > Electrical Forum > General Electrical Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-23-2015, 10:10 PM   #1
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Texas
Posts: 1
Rewards Points: 2
Default NEC should be Data Driven

A smart business is data driven. The data (results) of an operation or a procedure should be examined and changed using the data. A company makes candy bars and decides to add cherry sprinkles on top hoping to increase sales. The result (data) is that sales go down. The company reviews the data and makes the necessary changes.

Many NEC regulations need to be data driven. The NEC needs to respond to that to correct errors. Arc fault interrupters are a prime example. Suppose that before AFCI requirements went into effect, that 20 people per year died from residential electrocution. And then suppose that 2 years after AFCI regulations went into effect that there was still an average of 20 people a year were electrocuted. The results of the data would be that AFCI had no effect. Do you think the members of the NEC committees that manufacture AFCI devices would ever reverse the decision?

The NEC has run amok with new regulations with no accountability to the public or the profession. The same NEC committees that make unnecessary requirements for the profession, manufacture the products necessary to satisfy the regulations that burden the industry. It would be great to require gold plated breakers if you were the only one that made gold plated breakers.

It would be beneficial to the electrical industry if the NEC was held accountable to data. Results should be gathered and used to correct the NEC. Can you imagine the headline that read: “NEC reviews data from AFCI requirements and decides that AFCI requirements are rescinded” ?
odgrowler is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to odgrowler For This Useful Post:
ramon (02-24-2015)
Join Contractor Talk

Join the #1 Electrician Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

ElectricianTalk.com - Are you a Professional Electrical Contractor? If so we invite you to join our community and see what it has to offer. Our site is specifically designed for you and it's the leading place for electricians to meet online. No homeowners asking DIY questions. Just fellow tradesmen who enjoy talking about their business, their trade, and anything else that comes up. No matter what your specialty is you'll find that ElectricianTalk.com is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally free!

Join ElectricianTalk.com - Click Here JOIN FOR FREE


Warning: The topics covered on this site include activities in which there exists the potential for serious injury or death. ElectricianTalk.com DOES NOT guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information contained on this site. Always use proper safety precaution and reference reliable outside sources before attempting any construction or remodeling task!

Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 02-23-2015, 10:32 PM   #2
RIP 1959-2015
 
Black Dog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Reporting From Fenway Park Home of the Boston Red Sox....
Posts: 10,750
Rewards Points: 180
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by odgrowler View Post
A smart business is data driven. The data (results) of an operation or a procedure should be examined and changed using the data. A company makes candy bars and decides to add cherry sprinkles on top hoping to increase sales. The result (data) is that sales go down. The company reviews the data and makes the necessary changes.

Many NEC regulations need to be data driven. The NEC needs to respond to that to correct errors. Arc fault interrupters are a prime example. Suppose that before AFCI requirements went into effect, that 20 people per year died from residential electrocution. And then suppose that 2 years after AFCI regulations went into effect that there was still an average of 20 people a year were electrocuted. The results of the data would be that AFCI had no effect. Do you think the members of the NEC committees that manufacture AFCI devices would ever reverse the decision?

The NEC has run amok with new regulations with no accountability to the public or the profession. The same NEC committees that make unnecessary requirements for the profession, manufacture the products necessary to satisfy the regulations that burden the industry. It would be great to require gold plated breakers if you were the only one that made gold plated breakers.

It would be beneficial to the electrical industry if the NEC was held accountable to data. Results should be gathered and used to correct the NEC. Can you imagine the headline that read: “NEC reviews data from AFCI requirements and decides that AFCI requirements are rescinded” ?
Get used to them.

Learn to sell them.

Learn how to wire a house so that they work properly.

And enjoy the advantage you will gain over Electrical Contractors who are un-willing to learn to use them to their advantage...

Welcome to the forum......




.
__________________

To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.


To view links or images in signatures your post count must be 10 or greater. You currently have 0 posts.
Black Dog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-23-2015, 11:03 PM   #3
MTW
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Northeast USA
Posts: 15,529
Rewards Points: 10,228
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by odgrowler View Post
A smart business is data driven. The data (results) of an operation or a procedure should be examined and changed using the data. A company makes candy bars and decides to add cherry sprinkles on top hoping to increase sales. The result (data) is that sales go down. The company reviews the data and makes the necessary changes.

Many NEC regulations need to be data driven. The NEC needs to respond to that to correct errors. Arc fault interrupters are a prime example. Suppose that before AFCI requirements went into effect, that 20 people per year died from residential electrocution. And then suppose that 2 years after AFCI regulations went into effect that there was still an average of 20 people a year were electrocuted. The results of the data would be that AFCI had no effect. Do you think the members of the NEC committees that manufacture AFCI devices would ever reverse the decision?

The NEC has run amok with new regulations with no accountability to the public or the profession. The same NEC committees that make unnecessary requirements for the profession, manufacture the products necessary to satisfy the regulations that burden the industry. It would be great to require gold plated breakers if you were the only one that made gold plated breakers.

It would be beneficial to the electrical industry if the NEC was held accountable to data. Results should be gathered and used to correct the NEC. Can you imagine the headline that read: “NEC reviews data from AFCI requirements and decides that AFCI requirements are rescinded” ?
I agree. The NEC could be cut in half and it would still result in a safe, functional electrical system.
MTW is offline   Reply With Quote
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 02-24-2015, 12:12 AM   #4
Senior Member
 
ponyboy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: parts unknown
Posts: 8,051
Rewards Points: 709
Default

Afcis are only the start of it. The nec is slowly turning into a design manual which will require all sorts unnecessary measures that will only benefit the manufacturers. Add that to the ridiculous proposals, safety requirements, and the overall dumbing down of the trade


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
__________________
Too dumb for New York, too ugly for LA
ponyboy is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to ponyboy For This Useful Post:
IsThisAUnionJob? (02-25-2015)
Old 02-24-2015, 12:35 PM   #5
Wyome
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: WY
Posts: 756
Rewards Points: 914
Default

I have looked for statistics showing how much safer we are now that we have afcis working for us. I haven't seen that proof yet.
te12co2w is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 12:38 PM   #6
Electrical Simpleton
 
Pete m.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Ohio
Posts: 3,350
Rewards Points: 172
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by te12co2w View Post
I have looked for statistics showing how much safer we are now that we have afcis working for us. I haven't seen that proof yet.
If you make the assumption that they do as advertised it would be hard to find stats on fires that haven't happened.

Pete
__________________
"The difference between a conviction and a prejudice is that you can explain a conviction without getting angry."
Pete m. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 12:48 PM   #7
Senior Member
 
JRaef's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: SF Bay Area, California
Posts: 5,226
Rewards Points: 332
Default

Sometimes, someone has to lead, not follow. There is a quote attributed to Henry Ford in response to why he expended so much time and energy pushing the world into automobiles instead of leaving them as expensive toys for the rich;

"if I listened to what people wanted, I would have given them a faster horse."
__________________
"If you don't know where you're going, then any direction will do." -- Lewis Carroll
JRaef is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 01:23 PM   #8
Senior Member
 
Pharon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 656
Rewards Points: 866
Default

If the NFPA wanted the NEC to be data-driven, all they'd have to do is kick out all the manufacturers reps from the Code panels. And I'd be all for it.
Pharon is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Pharon For This Useful Post:
meadow (02-24-2015)
Old 02-24-2015, 01:51 PM   #9
Wyome
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: WY
Posts: 756
Rewards Points: 914
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete m. View Post
If you make the assumption that they do as advertised it would be hard to find stats on fires that haven't happened.

Pete
Seems like the number fires should have dropped. That could be a statistic somewhere.
te12co2w is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 02:46 PM   #10
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: IL
Posts: 3,838
Rewards Points: 1,224
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by te12co2w View Post
Seems like the number fires should have dropped. That could be a statistic somewhere.
When you look at the fire data, you will find that the AFCI won't really prevent many fires for a long time. The number of fires that they would prevent, even if they were 100% effective, over the first five years of full compliance with the 2014 NEC would be so small as to be statistically insignificant.
don_resqcapt19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 06:33 PM   #11
Senior Member
 
JRaef's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: SF Bay Area, California
Posts: 5,226
Rewards Points: 332
Default

Statistically, data from the NFPA shows that since 2007 when AFCIs began widely entering the market, residential fires attributable to electrical malfunctions have decreased by over 10%, in 2010 alone it was down by >3000 fires. If you were one of those 3000, it would be statistically significant.
__________________
"If you don't know where you're going, then any direction will do." -- Lewis Carroll

Last edited by JRaef; 02-24-2015 at 06:35 PM.
JRaef is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 06:38 PM   #12
Senior Member
 
Pharon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Boston, MA
Posts: 656
Rewards Points: 866
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRaef View Post
Sometimes, someone has to lead, not follow. There is a quote attributed to Henry Ford in response to why he expended so much time and energy pushing the world into automobiles instead of leaving them as expensive toys for the rich;

"if I listened to what people wanted, I would have given them a faster horse."

This is a terrible analogy. Henry Ford didn't pressure the government to pass a law mandating that everyone had to own a car.
Pharon is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 07:29 PM   #13
Senior Member
 
LawnGuyLandSparky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 6,380
Rewards Points: 172
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRaef View Post
Statistically, data from the NFPA shows that since 2007 when AFCIs began widely entering the market, residential fires attributable to electrical malfunctions have decreased by over 10%,
Which makes absolutely no sense, since 2007 only a fractional % of housing stock has been constructed.

Unless they're claiming that the .00001% of new construction with AFCIs is somehow protecting the 99.99999% of structures that don't have AFCIs and moat likely never will.

Quote:
in 2010 alone it was down by >3000 fires. If you were one of those 3000, it would be statistically significant.
LawnGuyLandSparky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 07:35 PM   #14
Retired Account
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: the Green Mountain state
Posts: 39,722
Rewards Points: 14,650
Default

NEC data input should take a ride down correlation does not imply causation avenue imho.....

~CS~
chicken steve is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 08:01 PM   #15
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: IL
Posts: 3,838
Rewards Points: 1,224
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRaef View Post
Statistically, data from the NFPA shows that since 2007 when AFCIs began widely entering the market, residential fires attributable to electrical malfunctions have decreased by over 10%, in 2010 alone it was down by >3000 fires. If you were one of those 3000, it would be statistically significant.
Since 85% of the dwelling unit fires that are said to be of electrical origin occur in dwelling units over 20 years old, I don't see how that is possible.

Using the same fire data that was used to say we need AFCIs, you would expect to prevent 55 fires in the first year of full compliance with the 2014 NEC. After the first 5 years, you would expect to have prevented 845 fires.

Last edited by don_resqcapt19; 02-24-2015 at 08:03 PM.
don_resqcapt19 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to don_resqcapt19 For This Useful Post:
Almost always lurkin (02-25-2015)
Old 02-24-2015, 08:20 PM   #16
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: IL
Posts: 3,838
Rewards Points: 1,224
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by JRaef View Post
Statistically, data from the NFPA shows that since 2007 when AFCIs began widely entering the market, residential fires attributable to electrical malfunctions have decreased by over 10%, in 2010 alone it was down by >3000 fires. If you were one of those 3000, it would be statistically significant.
According to the NFPA dwelling unit fires of electrical origin were
~19,000 in 2004
~21,000 in 2005
~25,000 in 2006
~25,000 in 2007
~25,000 in 2008
~21,000 in 2009
~20,000 in 2010
~21,000 in 2010.
don_resqcapt19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 08:51 PM   #17
Can't Remember
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: New Hampshire
Posts: 9,447
Rewards Points: 542
Default

My guess is a small percentage of homes have AFCI. It will be a long time before the majority of them do and a while to see whether there really is a decline that is truly proven to be attributed to these devices. Like another ten plus years.
nrp3 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 10:06 PM   #18
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: IL
Posts: 3,838
Rewards Points: 1,224
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nrp3 View Post
My guess is a small percentage of homes have AFCI. It will be a long time before the majority of them do and a while to see whether there really is a decline that is truly proven to be attributed to these devices. Like another ten plus years.
Exactly my point.
don_resqcapt19 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2015, 11:33 PM   #19
Very Long Vacation
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: united states of america
Posts: 11,766
Rewards Points: 5,262
Default

I could crash the severs on both subjects (CMP and AFCIs)...

But I will just sum it up: Read my signature.



The NEC is a dated document that no one knows how to improve or cares as long as someone is profiting from the code rules, that being said people who know nor care.
meadow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2015, 07:59 AM   #20
Retired Account
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: the Green Mountain state
Posts: 39,722
Rewards Points: 14,650
Default

Fire Forensic stats aren't that accurate .

I forget this a.m. which gov entity collects them, but i do recall an annual questionaire

Iirc, something like 1/3- 1/2 the FD's send them back.

Most FD's simply aren't budgeted for detailed forensics. I've stood by nothing more than smoking cellar holes in my past, to which the chief(s) would claim 'electrical orgin' , simply due to nobody being home.

It's either that, or suspicious orgin, then the acelerant sniffer appears

I don't see how an all-afci society is going to have any of that change....

~CS~
chicken steve is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to chicken steve For This Useful Post:
flyboy (02-25-2015), meadow (02-25-2015)
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
multiple data closets vs. one big data closet? paechris Structured Wiring 11 08-10-2011 02:44 AM
Mightypost driven flush. BrianJayT NEC Code Forum 13 06-29-2010 11:40 AM
Whats the furthest you've driven in a car..? captkirk Off Topic (Non Trade) 78 10-27-2009 07:28 PM
Belt driven alternator subelect General Electrical Discussion 3 04-30-2009 08:04 AM
Can't get ground rod driven flush. MDShunk NEC Code Forum 53 02-20-2007 12:43 PM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:19 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.1
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
User Alert System provided by Advanced User Tagging (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Our Pro Sites Network
ContractorTalk.com | DrywallTalk.com | HVACSite.com | PaintTalk.com | PlumbingZone.com | RoofingTalk.com