While I am not contending this won't happen.......I am not expecting it in our lifetime.
As per the San Fran news article, the suggested residential loads for pending removal:
28kW - The removal of a 100,000btu gas furnace would require in/about 28kW of electric heat.
5kW - The removal of a 25,000btu atmospherically vented water heater would be somewhere around 5kW.
The aforementioned gas equipment is pulled. Interior area heating AND the domestic water heater is now electrically operated. That's a 33kW increase. Notwithstanding this, too, I am understanding that we're all supposed to driving electric cars in 10 years too!! So, that's another approx 10kW.
So, now we have 43kW additional load required in a house that was only prewired for on/about 24kW (for 100amp) or 48kW (for 200amp) services.
This added demand load cascades from the top-down: (RED=Utility, BLUE=Private Contractor)
- Generation (hydro, nat gas, nuclear, etc...) then,
- Transmission lines, then,
- Distributions lines, then,
- Residential Services, then
- Residential Branch Circuitry.
There is NO WAY all this can be upgraded in short order:
The politicians can spin their wheels in this "green" tree-hugging boondoggle until they actually are advised by the energy industry what the implications really are!!!